Pittsburgh SportsNation's 2011 NFL Preview

by Mike Drakulich, Pittsburgh SportsNation

The hot days of summer are coming to an end, the weather is slowly turning cooler, and the leaves are changing colors. It's time to put away your swimming trunks, and take out your favorite player's jersey. Fall is back, and so is the NFL season.

After the 2010 season ended, NFL owners implemented a lockout that threatened to delay, or even suspend the 2011 season completely.

Thankfully, cooler heads prevailed,  and a new contract was worked out between the Owners and Players Union. Now we can all go about planning our tailgate parties, road trips, and Fantasy Football Leagues.

The lockout was very damaging to teams that were bad last season, and somewhat beneficial to veteran-laden teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers, who mostly had their starting line-ups already set. It prevented newly drafted players from entering team premises, thus cutting them off from learning anything about their new team's offensive or defensive schemes. Free Agency was delayed until a few days after the contract was reworked and the lockout lifted, so incoming free agents had very little time to adapt to their new team's surroundings.

After watching four weeks of preseason, let's take a look at how I see the 2011 season unfolding. Predictions include the number of wins to be expected, and the 'X-Factor'.

The X-Factor is a player on a roster that brings opposing coaches nightmares to plan and scheme against. The more X-Factor's a team has, the better chance that team has of being successful come crunch time.

AFC EAST

1. New England Patriots

X-Factors: QB Tom Brady

Tom Brady is the straw that stirs the Patriot's drink. Year in and year out, Brady has been the model of consistency. As usual, Brady has a wide range of weapons to play with, including newly acquired Chad Ochocinco. Wes Welker and Deion Branch will be sure to see plenty of targets this season, too. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is vastly underrated and should pile up double digit TD's again this season. Danny Woodhead creates match-up problems as a versatile H-Back.

As a whole, New England doesn't boast a team of  defensive stars, they just find players that fit their system, and when that system is humming, they are nearly impossible to overcome. Problem is, that system hasn't been running well come playoff time, as the Pats haven't won a playoff game since 2007.

The Patriots, thanks to Tom Brady, will be the team to beat in the East. Wins: 11 or 12

2. New York Jets

X-Factors: CB Darrelle Revis 

The Jets have made it to the AFC Championship game two years in a row, but have failed at winning either time, losing to the Colts and Steelers. Coach Rex Ryan has promised the Jets faithful a Super Bowl appearance this season, a feat that has only been accomplished once, that being the Joe Namath led team that won it all back in 1968.

QB Mark Sanchez hope to continue to improve, as he now has WR Santonio Holmes for the entire season, and welcomes Plaxico Burress to the team. Shonn Greene is primed to take over as the feature back and TE Dustin Keller is always a reliable target for Sanchez. This offense isn't a scoring dynamo by any means, but it should be efficient, if anything.

The swarming defense is led by corner Darrelle Revis who can lock down just about any receiver he faces. Antonio Cromartie provides great coverage on the other side, too, but can be beat.  Calvin Pace leads the linebackers and should amass quite a few sacks if he stays healthy.

Bottom Line: The Jets certainly talk the talk, but can they walk the walk? I just don't see Mark Sanchez as that guy who instills fear in opposing defenses. Until he does, expect more of the same from the Jets--close, but not quite there. Wins: 9 or 10

3. Miami Dolphins

X-Factors: Cameron Wake

Miami hopes to improve on last year's 6-10 record, but it won't be easy with the Jets and Patriots in the division. The best addition to the team was drafting C Mike Pouncey, brother of Steeler's Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey. Brandon Marshall provides a huge target for QB Chad Henne. Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas lead the way at RB.

LB Cameron Wake leads a slightly average defense. The Dolphins are still a year or two away from overtaking the Pats or the Jets. Wins: 6 or 7

4. Buffalo Bills

X-Factors: None

The Bills are heading in the right direction. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid at QB and will have rising star WR Steve Johnson as his main target. C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson combine to form a talented duo at RB.

Their biggest problem is a defense that gave up a whopping 26.6 points per game last season. If that stat doesn't improve, the Bills will remain in the East cellar. Wins: 6 or 7

AFC NORTH

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

X-Factors: QB Ben Roethlisberger, SS Troy Polamalu, LB LaMarr Woodley

The Steelers return 21 out of 22 starters on a team that finished 12-4 last season despite missing QB Ben Roethlisberger for the first 4 games last season. Big Ben has an arsenal of weapons to play with this year, including rising star WR Mike Wallace. Hines Ward and Jerrico Cotchery are great possession receivers, and Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders are flying up the depth chart. TE Heath Miller is always a welcomed safety valve for Roethlisberger and a huge target in the red zone. RB Rashard Mendenhall is quickly becoming one of the best at his position, averaging 1,190 yards and 10 TD's the past two seasons.

The key to the Steelers season is keeping SS Troy Polamalu and LB James Harrison healthy. Polamalu is one of the biggest game changers in the NFL today. James Harrison may get all of the publicity, but LaMarr Woodley is the Steelers best linebacker. The Steelers are a well rounded team. Yes, this defense is aging, but it is still the best the NFL has to offer. Wins: 12 or 13

2. Baltimore Ravens

X-Factors: RB Ray Rice, SS Ed Reed

If it weren't for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore may very well have added another Super Bowl trophy to it's display case over the past 5 years. Problem is, QB Joe Flacco just can't seem to find a way to defeat them come playoff time. Flacco has been solid, but not spectacular during his tenure as the Raven's offensive leader. WR Anquan Boldin and Lee Evans will receive the majority of the throws by Flacco, as Derrick Mason has moved on, as has TE Todd Heap. RB Ray Rice is superb as the lead runner, and should pile up plenty of fantasy stats.

Defensively, like the Steelers, Baltimore is getting old, but they will still be a disruptive force. Ed Reed needs to remain healthy to ensure playoff success. Ray Lewis was playing during the Last Supper, but still is a formidable LB. Expect Baltimore to be in the thick of it as usual. Wins: 10 or 11

3. Cleveland Browns

X-Factors: OT Joe Thomas

Cleveland may finish the season out of the North cellar for the second year in a row. QB Colt McCoy has looked sharp in preseason and RB Peyton Hillis looks to continue his success toting the ball for the Browns. If McCoy's WR's find a way to prevent James Harrison from putting them to sleep, they may actually put up some respectable numbers this year. Greg Little is a name to watch. 

Defensively is where the Browns will sputter, and without a means to stop anyone, the Browns will once again be on the outside looking in during playoff time. A soft schedule may provide a few extra victories. Wins: 6 or 7   

4. Cincinnati Bengals

X-Factors: None

The Bengals have once again become the Bungles. Carson Palmer has chosen to retire rather than play and rookie QB Andy Dalton takes over the helm. WR rookie A.J. Green will be a force to be reckoned with eventually, but without a bevy of weapons to defend, opposing secondaries will likely take him out of the game. RB Cedric Benson returns as the Bengals ball carrier, and is likely to see many 8 man fronts this season.

Defensively, the Bengals are in disarray, as they let CB Johnathan Joseph walk. Even with an easy schedule, I doubt you'll see any excitement from this squad. Wins: 2 or 3

AFC SOUTH

1. Houston Texans

X-Factors: RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson, DE Mario Williams

2011 may finally be the season Houston fans have been dreaming about, as a stellar offense is led by QB Matt Shaub, RB Arian Foster, and WR Andre Johnson. With Peyton Manning ailing, the Texans may finally find a way to overtake Indy for the South Division Title.

Mario Williams is hell on earth as a DE/LB and is the leader of the D. Problem is, Williams can't do it all by himself. Houston allowed 427 points last season, a big reason they finished 6-10. If they don't find a way to improve, the dream of winning the division may become just that...a dream. Wins: 9 or 10

2. Indianapolis Colts

X-Factors: QB Peyton Manning, WR Reggie Wayne, DE Dwight Freeney

QB Peyton Manning faces an uncertain future as he struggles to return from off season neck surgery. Without Manning, the Colts have turned to veteran Kerry Collins. WR Reggie Wayne will be solid no matter who is tossing the rock his way and TE Dallas Clark should rack up numbers as well. WR's Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Anthony Gonzalez remain injury prone, as always.

On the flip side of the ball, the D still has DE Dwight Freeney, but that is about it. If Manning isn't able to return quickly, the Colts season may be headed the way of the Dodo bird. Wins: 9 or 10

3. Tennessee Titans

X-Factors: RB Chris Johnson

RB Chris Johnson finally signed a new contract, so he should be motivated to provide the majority of the Titans offense. QB Matt Hasselbeck joins the team and should have a solid targets in WR Kenny Britt and TE Jared Cook.

If some how Hasselbeck can have an above average year, the Titans may surprise some people, but I wouldn't count on it. They just aren't good enough defensively. Wins: 6 or 7

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

X-Factors: RB Maurice Jones-Drew

QB David Garrard has been released, so the Jags will rely on Luke McCown to lead the team till rookie Blaine Gabbert is ready. That may affect star RB Maurice Jones-Drew greatly, as he should now expect to see plenty of  8 man fronts this season, unless McCown can force them back into the secondary. WR Mike Thomas and TE Mercedes Lewis will be the best options for McCown to throw to, other than Jones-Drew.

The Jags should be better defensively as they added LB's Paul Posluszny and Clint Session. Jacksonville ranked 30th last year in sacks. If they don't improve on that stat...Wins: 4-5

AFC WEST

1. San Diego Chargers

X-Factors: QB Phillip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates

The Chargers are like a teenager in a slasher flick that is about to get some love from the girl he's been pursuing all movie long. But just like in the movies, the killer sticks a pitchfork through the kids spine as he is undressing. Every year the Chargers are in the hunt for a playoff spot, but every year, their season ends in disappointment as something always goes wrong. QB Phillip Rivers seems to always be ranked ahead of Ben Roethlisberger in expert polls, but Rivers ranks far behind Roethlisberger in one main stat: Playoff wins. WR's Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd will be heavily targeted, as will the most dominant TE in the game in Antonio Gates. RB's Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert will look to enhance the Chargers running game even farther.

SS Bob Sanders joins the team, but is as fragile as a China Doll. The D ranked number 1 overall last year, but still gave up tons of big plays, and allowed 20.1 points per game. If they want to finally make their way to the promise land, the D will have to allow fewer. Wins: 10 or 11

2. Kansas City Chiefs

X-Factors: DE Tamba Hali

The Chiefs have a much harder schedule than last season, so to expect a second consecutive division title is a bit premature at this point. QB Matt Cassell has been efficient, but he doesn't scare opposing defenses. WR Dwayne Bowe is a monster target, but should come back to earth after a 15 TD campaign last season. Jamaal Charles has all the tools of becoming a star RB in this league if Head Coach Tod Haley will allow it. WR Steve Breaston joins the team and should be helpful, as will Jonathan Baldwin when he returns from injury.

Tamba Hali is the man on D, but the Chiefs remain suspect after that. Wins: 8 or 9

3. Denver Broncos

X-Factors: None

Josh McDaniels is out and John Fox is in as Head Coach, and that spells doom for QB Tim Tebow. Kyle Orton will remain the starter and will have his favorite target in WR Brandon Lloyd to throw to. Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee look to recharge the Broncos running game.

There's not much to like defensively, and that will be a major factor this season. Wins: 6-7

4. Oakland Raiders

X-Factors: None

The Raiders have a stud at RB in Darren McFadden, but other than that, this team is not very good offensively. Michael Bush should see plenty of time as well. QB Jason Campbell returns as the starter and has average WR's at best. Keep an eye out for Denarious Moore, though. 

Defensively, the Raiders are as easy to score on as Rebecca De Mornay was in her earlier films. The bottom line is, till Al Davis, aka The Crypt Keeper, stops meddling in everyday affairs, the Raiders will continue a Tradition of Mediocrity. Wins: 5 or 6 

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2011 AFC Playoff Predictions

1. Pittsburgh

2. New England

3. San Diego

4. Houston

5. Baltimore

6. Kansas City 

First Round: 1. Pittsburgh (bye) 2. New England (bye)

3. San Diego over 6. Kansas City / 5. Baltimore over 4. Houston 

AFC Semi-Finals: Pittsburgh over Baltimore / New England over San Diego

AFC Championship: Pittsburgh over New England

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NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles

X-Factors: QB Mike Vick, CB Nnamdi Asomugha

Philadelphia has been recently referring to itself as the 'Dream Team'. With Mike Vick leading the team at quarterback, the Eagles look to return to the Super Bowl. Receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin will be Vick's favorite targets, as will RB Shady McCoy out of the backfield. McCoy could approach double digit rushing TD's if Andy Reid would actually run the ball inside the 5 yard line. Ronnie Brown is now an Eagle, too. TE Brent Celek is very good, but doesn't see a ton of targets usually.

Nnamdi Asomugha joins the secondary and will need to hone his tackling skills, because the Eagles front seven is below average when it come to stopping the run. The key to this season will be the health of Vick. If he goes down, so do the Eagles playoff hopes. Wins: 10 or 11

2. Dallas Cowboys

X-Factors: LB DeMarcus Ware

Tony Romo returns from injury and should have an exciting offense to run as QB. Receivers Dez Bryant and Miles Austin may lead a potent passing attack, and the ever reliable Jason Witten is always around at TE. Felix Jones looks to break out as a star this season as handcuff Marion Barber is off to the Bears.

DeMarcus Ware is the main cog in an improved defense in Dallas, and if the Cowboys can contain Michael Vick, they may even steal this division. Wins: 9 or 10

3. New York Giants

X-Factors: None

Eli Manning wants to prove that he is an elite QB in this league, but first he must cut down on the interceptions, of which, he led the league in two of the past four seasons. Manning has WR Hakeem Nicks, who burned the league for over 1,000 yards and 10 TD's last season. Mario Manningham is a good #2. Ahmad Bradshaw will start at RB and is great at catching passes out of the backfield. Brandon Jacobs is a force in short yardage and goal line opportunities.

Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora are the mainstays on the D, but are soft vs the run. Injuries are a concern as well, as CB Terrell Thomas and MLB Jonathan Goff have been lost to ending injuries. Wins: 7 or 8

4. Washington Redskins

X-Factors: None

The Redskins enter 2011 with Rex Grossman as the starter at quarterback. May God have mercy on their souls. On a happy note, Tim Hightower is looking like a fantasy football steal, as he has been running with a purpose this preseason. WR Santana Moss should see a ton of targets as well. TE Chris Cooley will be as reliable as ever.

The Skins D must have felt like France in WWII, as the secondary was bombed week in and week out. Only the Texans gave up more yards through the air. Not much has changed. Wins: 6-7

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay Packers

X-Factors: QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Jermichael Finley, LB Clay Matthews

The defending Super Bowl Champs look as solid as ever, returning the majority of its starters. Aaron Rodgers should be dominant again, especially with WR Greg Jennings and TE Jermichael Finley to throw to. It looks as if the Pack will deploy a running back by committee, as Ryan Grant and James Starks look to share time in the backfield.

Clay Matthews leads an impressive defense as the Pack likes to attack. The biggest concern will be a Super Bowl letdown, but sacrificial lambs like the Panthers, Vikings, and Raiders should help out on the schedule. Green Bay will be in the hunt once again. Wins: 11 or 12

2. Detroit Lions

X-Factors: WR Calvin Johnson

Detroit is finally on the rise, and with QB Matt Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson leading the way, the Lions may finally get to enjoy a playoff chase for the first time in a long time. Javid Best hopes to stay away from the injury bug as starting RB, and Brandon Pettigrew is becoming a go to TE. If Best goes down, look for Jerome Harrison to step up.

Ndamukong Suh is a beast, and the rest of the D hope to improve on last season's dismal effort. If they can, they may be looking as a dark horse playoff contender. Wins: 8 or 9 

3. Chicago Bears

X-Factors: LB Brian Urlacher

Jay Cutler is looking to prove critics wrong, especially in the department of calling him soft. RB Matt Forte should have a solid year. Roy Williams joins an average receiving crew that includes Earl Bennett, Johnny Knox and Devin Hester. Marion Barber is hurt as usual.

Julius Peppers joins the D and the ageless Brian Urlacher remains a terror in the middle. Lance Briggs is playing for a contract. If the Bears offensive line can keep Orton alive, a return trip to the playoffs is possible, but I feel the Bears were more lucky than good last year. Wins: 7 or 8 

4. Minnesota Vikings

X-Factors: RB Adrian Peterson

The Vikings turn to Donovan McNabb this season as QB and he has Percy Harvin as his main man at WR, provided Harvin can keep his migraines in check. TE Visanthe Shiancoe should develop a good rapport with McNabb, who has utilized his tight ends effectively during his career. Adrian Peterson will remain one of the best RB's in the game, whether or not McNabb struggles. Peterson just needs to hold on to the ball better.

The Vikings have always been good at stopping the run, but not so good at defending the pass. Some people tend to see McNabb leading the Vikes back to the playoffs, but I doubt that greatly. Wins: 5 or 6

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints

X-Factors: QB Drew Brees

Drew Brees is primed to lead his troops back to the Super Bowl as once again he has many a weapon to select from. The wide receivers are deep, as Marques Colston and Lance Moore lead the way. TE Jimmy Graham has developed into a red zone nightmare for defenses, and the addition of rookie RB Mark Ingram to an already solid backfield of Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles should give defenses match-up problems all game.

The Saints have a good defense, as they are proficient in taking away the ball, but a pass rush is of major concern. If they improve on that aspect, a return trip to glory may be at hand. Wins: 11 or 12

2. Atlanta Falcons

X-Factors: WR Roddy White

Matt Ryan is quickly becoming a stud QB. Of course, it doesn't hurt having WR Roddy White to throw to. Toss in rookie Julio Jones, and the Falcons may have a nasty passing attack to deal with. Michael Turner will be consistent as always, churning out another 1,200 yards and double digit TD's. TE and future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez will be a target in the redzone, too.

The biggest concern will be if the defense can keep opposing offenses in check if Matty Ice is having a bad day. The Falcons don't really have a true blue leader on D. Still, I like what I see. Wins: 11 or 12

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

X-Factors: None

Next year, Josh Freeman may very well be an X-Factor, but I have to see it for myself this upcoming season. Freeman has all the tools to becoming star. Now he just needs to make his reads and adjust to blitzing defenses. Tampa needs to acquire a few more weapons to compliment Freeman, but WR Mike Williams has already established himself as the go to guy in the Bucs offense. Perhaps Arrelious Benn will step up and make a showing this season. TE Kellen Winslow is definitely going to see alot of targets, too.  RB LaGarrette Blount is a beast of a runner.

Like so many teams, Tampa is suspect at best on defense. With New Orleans and Atlanta roaming the division, that isn't a good weakness to have. Tampa is close, but not close enough. Wins: 8 or 9

4. Carolina Panthers

X-Factors: None

Carolina is set to turn it's offense over to Number One pick Cam Newton. While Newton may become a star in this league, he is going to take his lumps this season, as the Panthers are a very bad team. Carolina still boasts the two headed monster of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart at RB, but that is about it. WR Steve Smith is still good, but will likely be double teamed all season long.

There's not much to write home about defensively either, as the Panthers will likely be challenging the Bengals for the right to draft number 1 again next year. Wins: 3 to 4

NFC WEST

1. Arizona Cardinals

X-Factors: WR Larry Fitzgerald

Kevin Kolb will be called upon to lead the Cards at QB. As long as Kolb stays on his feet, he may be headed for a pretty good year, especially when you have the games best wide receiver at your behest in Larry Fitzgerald. If Todd Heap can return to form, Kolb will have a go to TE, too. RB Beanie Wells has been running with a purpose all preseason, and seems to have finally realized his massive potential.

Stopping the running game has been Arizona's trouble spot, and if that improves, I see the Cards as the front runner in a horrible division. Wins: 8 or 9

2. St. Louis Rams

X-Factors: RB Steven Jackson

Sam Bradford looks to lead the Rams into the playoffs, and he has some artillery to play with. Mike Sims-Walker leads the pack at receiver, with Danny Amendola, a Wes Welker clone, right next to him. Steven Jackson could be a fantasy beast this year, especially if Bradford continues to blossom.

St. Louis went and signed Quintin Mikell from the Eagles, and he should solidify the secondary. They'll need to be sharp in the secondary with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald roaming their territory twice a year. It wouldn't shock me if St. Louis won this division, but I think they are still a year off. Wins: 8 or 9

3. San Francisco 49ers

X-Factors: TE Vernon Davis

John Harbaugh takes over as head coach in the Bay, and he is hoping he can make Alex Smith a serviceable quarterback. Smith has a few choice weapons in WR's Michael Crabtree and Braylon Edwards, as well as TE Vernon Davis. RB Frank Gore is a fantasy star when he is able to remain healthy, but Gore is a long shot to play all 16 games.

Patrick Willis is one of the top LB's in the game, but the rest of the defense is a huge question mark. It wil be the D that keeps the 49ers in or out of the cellar in the West. Wins: 4 or 5

4. Seattle Seahawks

X-Factors: None

Seattle heads into the '11 campaign with Tavaris Jackson as their QB. Jackson has Sidney Rice as his main target, as well as Mike Williams. Marshawn Lynch will be the feature back. Zach Miller may be a serviceable TE in some fantasy formats.

On the defensive side, the Seahawks are less than spectacular. Pete Carroll has them heading back in the right direction, but I see this year as a step back for them. Wins: 4 or 5

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2011 NFC Playoff Predictions

1. Green Bay

2. New Orleans

3. Philadelphia

4. Arizona

5. Atlanta

6. Dallas

First Round: 1. Green Bay (bye) 2. New Orleans (bye)

3. Philadelphia over 6. Dallas / 5. Atlanta over 4. Arizona

NFC Semi-Finals: Atlanta over Green Bay / New Orleans over Philadelphia

NFC Championship: New Orleans over Atlanta

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SUPER BOWL XLVI: Pittsburgh over New Orleans 31-20

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So, there you have it, Pittsburgh SportsNation's NFL Season Preview is complete. So grab your beer or pop, fire up the grill, and prepare your man cave for another exciting season of NFL football.

Enjoy each minute of every week. Savor the moments of glory your team achieves, and proudly wear your jersey every game day. The wait is over.

The NFL Season is here.